MoneyWisee

Coming Up Today (all times GMT)

• GBP - Prelim Q1 GDP q/q (08:30)
• USD - Durable Goods Orders (12:30)
• OIL - Weekly Inventories (14:30)
• USD - FOMC Statement (16:30) and Press Conference (18:15)
• NZD - Interest Rate Statement (21:00)

EURUSD

Amid persistent weakness in the US dollar, the EURUSD pair benefitted from solid buying interest to jump above the $1.4650 support. Today, all eyes will be watching the FOMC rate statement followed by Ben Bernanke’s press conference. Dollar sentiment could vary depending on the central bank’s willingness to shed light on its exit strategy. Will the Fed rollover the maturing debt it hold on its balance sheet or choose to off-load it gradually? Will it change its growth forecast for 2011, to integrate the GDP preliminary estimate that is due for release on Thursday? Opinions differ wildly on all of these questions, which could imply high volatility in the pair. Technical wise, a move above $1.4740 could signal further upside with $1.4800 and $1.4850 as next target, while a break below the $1.4550 support could be considered as a bearish signal.

EURUSD Support/Resistance: 1.4550/1.4740

GBPUSD

After a short dip below $1.6450, the pair recovered more than 60 pips, showing support from sterling buyers. Overall, market participants remain cautious ahead of the release of official GDP figures. If data shows that UK failed to return to growth during the first quarter, pound selling could occur and send the pair below the $1.6400 level. Conversely, if GDP figures show that the economy managed to overcome the contraction in activity evidenced in Q4, bullish sentiment could prevail and help the GBPUSD challenge the upper border of its trading channel at $1.6600.

GBPUSD Support/Resistance: 1.6400 / 1.6600

EURGBP Support/Resistance: 0.8840 / 0.8930